I don't think that's inevitable. Improved communication and ease of travel/tourism make most of the world powers likely to enter a global conflict against each other less inclined to upset the status quo. There are some minor countries still looking to rattle sabers (looking at North Korea and ISIS), but that doesn't guarantee that they'll be able to provoke a global conflict. China has been pretty effective at reigning in North Korean aggression and keeping them from launching a full scale invasion of South Korea which would provoke the US to renew hostilities.
The circumstances that arose out of the era of Western colonialism are not the circumstances we faced today. For one thing, the major powers no longer adhere to the notion that a single nation or alliance can successfully invade and dominate the rest of the world.
You underestimate the capacity of humans to make damned foolish and destructive decision under extreme pressure or desperation.
Look at WWII's Germany. It took out a war that its leaders believe was the only way to get it out of crushing debt.
Nations will continue to go broke and desperate. And at some point someone with access to nukes will push the button. Hell, it we missed nuclear armageddon by a hair in 1983.
I agree that wagering against human stupidity is a loser's bet. Nevertheless, I once again point out that conditions in the world aren't the same as they were before. Post-Versailles Germany blamed Western Europe for its economic woes because the Treaty of Versailles explicitly imposed crushing penalties on Germany with the aim of crippling their ability to ever resurrect the military threat they had built at the turn of the century. Such conditions do not exist the same way today. North Korea faces sanctions but even its closest allies aren't interested in allowing it to provoke a global conflict. The US has made strides toward normalizing relations with Cuba who doesn't have any world power alliances to threaten us any longer, and the Western treaty with Iran is likely to diffuse tensions whether or not the US can get over itself to join in the rapprochement.
Sure, when you make people desperate they're more open to military solutions, but we're less likely to do that than we were when World Wars were all the rage. Smaller regional conflicts continue to sprout but a global conflict is far less likely today than it was a hundred years ago, or even thirty.
I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm not even saying it's especially unlikely. I'm saying it's not necessarily inevitable. If we can maintain the progress we've made so far there's then there's much more reason not to start a world war.
I'm thinking an economic collapse followed by a scramble for the remaining resources. I know that this scenario has been predicted for decades, but hasn't materialized. Even so, it feels as though all it would take is the butterfly effect to get something started.
There already kind of was, if you look at the War on Terror from the perspective of America trying to get a foothold in some of the last oil-rich countries in the Middle East.
Physical space and the resources they provide. The global population will just be too big for its' britches and countries will increasingly bump shoulders until something happens.
Israel attacks another country in self-defense, the other Middle Eastern countries rush to defend whomever Israel is attacking, the US steps in to defend Israel, the US calls in favors from other European countries. I feel it's pretty inevitable.
The known powers today are just to well established and predictable I don't think it will have anything to do with current political powers, at least directly. If it were to happen it would most likely have a lot to do with Africa and the power struggles currently going on there.
Attacks by a non state actor against a NATO country leading to regional destabilization and the involvement of the West. I'm thinking of a country on the fringes of NATO like Turkey. When the western powers are dragged into such a conflict, it is inevitable in my mind that Russia and China will want in on the action.
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This assumes that World War III is inevitable. Why should I assume that?
Assumes, also, that we’re not on to World War V by now.
Because as time moves forward the probability that it happens approaches one.
I don't think that's inevitable. Improved communication and ease of travel/tourism make most of the world powers likely to enter a global conflict against each other less inclined to upset the status quo. There are some minor countries still looking to rattle sabers (looking at North Korea and ISIS), but that doesn't guarantee that they'll be able to provoke a global conflict. China has been pretty effective at reigning in North Korean aggression and keeping them from launching a full scale invasion of South Korea which would provoke the US to renew hostilities.
“One day the great European War will come out of some damned foolish thing in the Balkans.” ― Otto von Bismarck (1888)
And he was right.
As we continue to elect damned fools with the powers that comes with leading a country we can expect that at some point one will push the trigger.
The circumstances that arose out of the era of Western colonialism are not the circumstances we faced today. For one thing, the major powers no longer adhere to the notion that a single nation or alliance can successfully invade and dominate the rest of the world.
You underestimate the capacity of humans to make damned foolish and destructive decision under extreme pressure or desperation.
Look at WWII's Germany. It took out a war that its leaders believe was the only way to get it out of crushing debt.
Nations will continue to go broke and desperate. And at some point someone with access to nukes will push the button. Hell, it we missed nuclear armageddon by a hair in 1983.
I agree that wagering against human stupidity is a loser's bet. Nevertheless, I once again point out that conditions in the world aren't the same as they were before. Post-Versailles Germany blamed Western Europe for its economic woes because the Treaty of Versailles explicitly imposed crushing penalties on Germany with the aim of crippling their ability to ever resurrect the military threat they had built at the turn of the century. Such conditions do not exist the same way today. North Korea faces sanctions but even its closest allies aren't interested in allowing it to provoke a global conflict. The US has made strides toward normalizing relations with Cuba who doesn't have any world power alliances to threaten us any longer, and the Western treaty with Iran is likely to diffuse tensions whether or not the US can get over itself to join in the rapprochement.
Sure, when you make people desperate they're more open to military solutions, but we're less likely to do that than we were when World Wars were all the rage. Smaller regional conflicts continue to sprout but a global conflict is far less likely today than it was a hundred years ago, or even thirty.
I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm not even saying it's especially unlikely. I'm saying it's not necessarily inevitable. If we can maintain the progress we've made so far there's then there's much more reason not to start a world war.
I don't think the world changed that much since 1983.
Heeey, Bismarck! I love this guy, made Germany out of a loose confederation of states.
I'm thinking an economic collapse followed by a scramble for the remaining resources. I know that this scenario has been predicted for decades, but hasn't materialized. Even so, it feels as though all it would take is the butterfly effect to get something started.
Lack of natural resources. We're running out of them at a rapid rate, and soon there will be a war over the last remaining natural resources.
There already kind of was, if you look at the War on Terror from the perspective of America trying to get a foothold in some of the last oil-rich countries in the Middle East.
Countries spying on each other like it's a game.
If I'm right, that means it's close :(.
Like most war, a power shift. The first world power in the 2050s should be Asian and this kind of shift is often accompanied by war.
Physical space and the resources they provide. The global population will just be too big for its' britches and countries will increasingly bump shoulders until something happens.
Very simply, population growth - too many people for too few resources - likely to happen within the next 20 - 50 years
Israel attacks another country in self-defense, the other Middle Eastern countries rush to defend whomever Israel is attacking, the US steps in to defend Israel, the US calls in favors from other European countries. I feel it's pretty inevitable.
The known powers today are just to well established and predictable I don't think it will have anything to do with current political powers, at least directly. If it were to happen it would most likely have a lot to do with Africa and the power struggles currently going on there.
I think the spark is already there. The entire world is focused on the Middle East and Isis.
Someone powerful gets greedy and has other people do atrocious things because they're too scared to say no.
Alien Invasion - the world bands together to take on the aliens in WW3.
Attacks by a non state actor against a NATO country leading to regional destabilization and the involvement of the West. I'm thinking of a country on the fringes of NATO like Turkey. When the western powers are dragged into such a conflict, it is inevitable in my mind that Russia and China will want in on the action.
greed and fear