I agree that wagering against human stupidity is a loser's bet. Nevertheless, I once again point out that conditions in the world aren't the same as they were before. Post-Versailles Germany blamed Western Europe for its economic woes because the Treaty of Versailles explicitly imposed crushing penalties on Germany with the aim of crippling their ability to ever resurrect the military threat they had built at the turn of the century. Such conditions do not exist the same way today. North Korea faces sanctions but even its closest allies aren't interested in allowing it to provoke a global conflict. The US has made strides toward normalizing relations with Cuba who doesn't have any world power alliances to threaten us any longer, and the Western treaty with Iran is likely to diffuse tensions whether or not the US can get over itself to join in the rapprochement.
Sure, when you make people desperate they're more open to military solutions, but we're less likely to do that than we were when World Wars were all the rage. Smaller regional conflicts continue to sprout but a global conflict is far less likely today than it was a hundred years ago, or even thirty.
I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm not even saying it's especially unlikely. I'm saying it's not necessarily inevitable. If we can maintain the progress we've made so far there's then there's much more reason not to start a world war.
I agree that wagering against human stupidity is a loser's bet. Nevertheless, I once again point out that conditions in the world aren't the same as they were before. Post-Versailles Germany blamed Western Europe for its economic woes because the Treaty of Versailles explicitly imposed crushing penalties on Germany with the aim of crippling their ability to ever resurrect the military threat they had built at the turn of the century. Such conditions do not exist the same way today. North Korea faces sanctions but even its closest allies aren't interested in allowing it to provoke a global conflict. The US has made strides toward normalizing relations with Cuba who doesn't have any world power alliances to threaten us any longer, and the Western treaty with Iran is likely to diffuse tensions whether or not the US can get over itself to join in the rapprochement.
Sure, when you make people desperate they're more open to military solutions, but we're less likely to do that than we were when World Wars were all the rage. Smaller regional conflicts continue to sprout but a global conflict is far less likely today than it was a hundred years ago, or even thirty.
I'm not saying it's impossible. I'm not even saying it's especially unlikely. I'm saying it's not necessarily inevitable. If we can maintain the progress we've made so far there's then there's much more reason not to start a world war.
I don't think the world changed that much since 1983.