8 years ago
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The Death of the PC Has Not Been Greatly Exaggerated
Worldwide PC shipments saw their biggest drop in nearly two years, reaffirming the ascendancy of mobile and the steady demise of the personal computer. Research outfit Gartner tracked a 9.5 percent decline in shipments in the second quarter of this year compared to the same time a year ago, posting a tally of 68.4 million units. Meanwhile, researchers at IDC, which doesn’t count tablets in its report, calculated an 11.8 percent drop year-over-year to 66.1 million PCs shipped.
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PCs are getting "good enough", they aren't changed that often. Tablets and cell on the other hand seldom last more than a year, max two.
If you look at the number in use, PCs aren't dying.
SO true. I went almost 7 years between buying desktops, and I can see my current one probably lasting that long before I do it again. Doesn't mean I don't use it at least 2-3 hours per day.
That's actually a really important point! You're completely right, I hadn't even thought about that! I haven't gotten a new computer in years, and I probably won't get another for another year. If everyone else (that has a computer) is at least almost as bad about keeping their computer up to date, this sort of decline in sales might spell an even greater increase in price. A new computer just isn't one of my priorities, and if prices go up because of this, I really don't know what will happen. There's a few different ways this could go and I guess we'll just have to wait and see. How do you think this will play out?
It's not a new or original observation, the papers have been saying that every year so I've known why that is for a while now. The truth is that since Windows XP, people don't want to let go of their old computers. The only ones that need new machines at a regular interval are the gamers and even them don't change their war machines at the same rate people change their tablets.
PCs will continue to be in every business and everywhere. They'll continue to give some modest ground to the laptops but still, it's all the same manufacturers.
Next year you'll see that PCs are dying. Again. And the one after. And the next.
If you want to understand why it's written, Paul Graham explains it in this article.
The first paragraph of the article written in 2005 is:
And if you Google for "suits are back", you'll find articles claiming that the suits are back up to 2015.
Go read the article, it's quite worth it.
I'd like to point out as well that pc gamers also a lot of the time don't just straight up buy a new rig. They'll normally upgrade parts until their motherboard can't hold the latest stuff. At least that's what I do.
And often buy the first rig piece by piece to begin with, thus never buying a PC as far as stats are concerned.
Maybe, but I'm still gonna buy a new gaming rig in the next six months if I can ever scrounge together the money.
It wasn't even clear in the article if they were focusing on PC's as opposed to laptops, especially since the numbers they referenced included MacBooks. Are they suggesting they phones are going to replace laptops/pc's/everything that's not a "mobile device"?
I think the article made enough references to a shift in the industry toward mobile devices that the answer is "yes." Smart phones and tablets appear to be the way of the future and both the software and hardware sides of the industry are shifting to meet that demand.
Yeah, you're probably right. Mobile devices in their current form would never replace a PC/laptop for me, although they certainly have their uses. I'm curious to see how mobile technology continues to evolve and develop. Maybe small devices that unfold into larger screens, laser keyboards, or maybe just this; http://blog.laptopmag.com/wpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/futurama_eyePhone.jpg
I do a lot of my browsing on my tablet, which has just the right balance of usability and portability for me. Combined with a bluetooth keyboard and I'm set for perhaps 80% of my computing needs. My phone is too small and my laptop too big. I'll want my laptop when I'm on the road for bigger projects like remote IT support and watching videos. But when it comes to playing the few video games I enjoy I'm always going to want the raw power of a desktop. So until technology changes drastically in such a way to combine all these features into one or two devices I'll probably always have all four.
Dude, I highly reccomend it! Even though the PC is "dying", PC gaming is rising and rising.
I'll say this once and I'll say it again the PC master race will never perish. Consoles are cool and all but sometimes It's better to just go to the PC's side of things.
Most people that bought a computer before the advent of smartphones or touchpads did not use the computer to do actual computing tasks. They only bought it to surf or use it for word processing. It is not that a computer will be obsolete, it is just that the market has evolved.
It is kind of like what will happen to the automotive industry when all cars are self driving: most families will have one car instead of two and because all trucks and taxis will be driving 24/7 there will be less sales.
This is exactly it. Traditional PC's are massive overkill for most of the world. All Joey Bagadonuts wants to do is look at his facebook and maybe find some tail on Tinder, not recompile their kernel while rendering meshes.
I agree, now that the technology has advanced enough for phones/tablets to be powerful and comfortable enough for most people's use cases, PCs are increasingly being used only for (relatively) niche purposes.
It's important to note, though, that the entire mobile category of devices couldn't exist without PCs, since that's where the mobile apps are developed, websites are built, and the whole infrastructure is maintained. PCs aren't dying, their install base and market share is being dwarfed by the massive number of regular people for whom mobile devices provide a better solution for computing tasks.
I think both Microsoft and Apple is sobering up to this fact with fewer wanting to pay for unnecessary OS updates that only applies to high-end systems or likewise high-end users having to pay for unnecessary updates that only applies to low-end users.
IMO mobile and PC will ultimately combine into the same device in the coming years. We're already seeing that with combo laptop/tablets and as we can fit more and more power into our mobile devices they'll take over the simple stuff our PCs do.
You'll bring your phone to work and it will connect to your monitor, keyboard, mouse, etc. You'll do your work on it and then when you get home the same thing. However, thats not to say niche markets for high powered computing won't still exists. Gaming, video and image editing, coding, etc are all going to require higher end machines. But for a large percentage of people all they do is e-mail and web browsing with some word processing or spreadsheet work. Current phones can handle that stuff pretty easily at the moment, whats missing is the ease of hooking up all your peripherals.
Sure, not everyone will need a stationary computer to surf the internet. Yet, those who need a workstation, will buy a workstation. In my case, my laptop cannot store all the RAW-photos I have taken over the years and I have started getting into video which also needs storage space in the size a laptop cannot provide. It also seems every other week there is someone posting about having filled up their little laptop with pictures. Well, I'm not surprised, either buy more storage space the next time or learn the limitations of your equipment and how to get around them.
The storage problem can only be resolved by remote storage (and backup). I think Apple is on the right track with the new photos app in Yosemite. "Normal" people can't be expected to set up and verify storage and backup solutions for their 10 000 cat photos.
Thin clients to remote workstations could become a way to fill this niche in the future, too. I've heard of offices who, instead of releasing full-blown hardware to their employees, will give them a tablet (with accompanying mouse/keyboard if needed), and have them connect to something like Amazon Workspaces so that they can connect to their normal office tasks.
The desktop isn't dying, normal people who just need general computing devices are better served with their phones. But there's work that requires a desktop and will continue into the foreseeable future. Tasks like writing, accounting, programming, and data processing will continue to be done best at a desk sitting down with a mouse and keyboard. What we're going to see is the desktop market shrink and get more specialized for the uses desktops excel at.
How much of that drop is attributable to "casual users" who never needed more than basic web browsing, multimedia playback, and maybe some simple word processing? Gaming and data processing are still very much in the realm of PCs. Sure, PCs aren't good for "big data" applications, but most power users can get away with using a decent laptop or desktop PC. I can see desktop PCs getting squeezed down into the niche market for gamers and hobbyists, while laptops survive in the business/work/student world.
I think this is mostly "home office PC's" where tablets can be used. People using them as Facebook and mail machines, and where "games" are Facebook games. There's got to be immense amounts of them out there. As for PC gaming, I think that's a different picture. It's a completely different experience to sit at a 27" display, a keyboard, and mouse, compared to anything mobile. The gaming PC market may still be hurt due to slow upgrade cycles but I hope and think that it'll survive the foreseeable future, and further, be an attractive enough market for game developers.
If prices in PC parts fall because of a decreasing demand, I'll be happy. However, it might create less offer on the long run due to manufacturers leaving the market, which will increase the prices and that, I don't like it.
I'll probably always have a desktop. I like PC gaming. And I like the customization that can be done with it.
More people are competent enough to build their own PC's for less money than an 'out of the box' version. so PC component sales should be evaluated.
those who aren't technically savvy are more likely to buy a laptop or tablet as they just want the easiest solution . and aren't necessarily going to benefit from having a full PC system
I still have my pc tower. I have a cellphone that I can use to do "social websites" stuff but I don't like it that much. I guess I'm just an old school kind of dude.
I haven't owned a traditional PC in years. These days, I do everything from a laptop (even gaming), but I also like using my iPad for mobile browsing and lightweight things which don't need a full laptop, making it perfect for college.
They seem to have included laptops in their count.