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  • picklefingers
    +5

    I've just given up on the Monty Hall problem. I get it, but I just don't get it. Sort of like a lot of physics concepts. I get that certain things happen and I get the reasons, but I couldn't work out on a board exactly why.

    • drunkenninja
      +5

      For those wondering, this is a great video highlighting the concept of the Monty Hall problem. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0

    • oystein
      +4

      The point lies in what Monty does when you choose a door. He deliberately opens a door that doesn't have anything behind it. Thus making sure that the 2/3-probability still lies with the door(s) you haven't chosen. I had my students try it out on eachother and it pays off to switch in two thirds of the cases.

      • ofest
        +5

        I had no idea what the Monty Hall problem was. Upon looking it up, I think I can explain it:

        Monty introduced NEW INFORMATION into the system once he exposed the door that was a zonk (he told the contestant which door NOT to choose). The contestant had NO new information on the door he/she chose, but new (and beneficial) information on the doors he/she didn't choose. To benefit from that new info, the logical choice was to switch.

        If that still doesn't make sense, i can try to explain it differently.

      • ColonBowel
        +2

        Why isn't the choice to stay or switch independent from the first choice to choose one of the 3?

        • redalastor
          +5

          Do you agree that when you choose your initial door, the probability of being right is 1/3? Baring a switcheroo behind the door, that probability cannot change. The car won't jump to or away from the door.

          The other doors also have 1/3 chances. Until Monty opens one, now that door has 0/3 chances of being right. You door is still 1/3, we already established it can't change. There's now 1/3 unaccounted for. Where did it go? To the remaining door which brings it to 2/3.

          • ColonBowel
            +4

            Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! I got it now. Thanks!