What a shit-show, I really can't believe anyone thought this would be a good idea. Why should the government care if the insurance companies hike the rates? I'm sure they're really worried about more people choosing to pay the "fee" instead.
I'm fairly certain they've planned for that at least at first by increasing the penalty every year. I assume at some point that penalty will flat line and then they'll try and rush through or attach new penalty increases into a future bill.