You say that, but I'm not seeing any proof of it. People are checking out Reddit alternatives in larger droves lately, sure, but at the same time I haven't seen Reddit so active in a while and the vast majority of the subs that went dark weren't even dark for 24 hours. There's also the problem that by far the most recommended alternative on Reddit has been Voat, and since it's down, people just end up staying at Reddit even more.
To add to that, the digg exodus didn't happen overnight. The digg staff were doing almost the exact same things that Reddit is doing now but in neither case did people just suddenly stop using the website. It's a slow trickle, not a flash flood because millions of different people with varying degrees of interest in the drama are using the website. It was the same case for Digg.
That said, I still have some Reddit tabs open but there could be a point in the future where I won't even think of Reddit and will either go directly to Voat or Snapzu.
Honestly, it depends on what subreddits you belongs to and how long it takes the rest of the community. I know that until /r/taiwan starts moving to /t/taiwan on Snapzu or /v/taiwan on Voat, I'm going to be keeping at least one Reddit tab open. There are a few others I am subbed to that have not made a real transition elsewhere, yet.
Reddit will be fine. There is a small minority who are actually ticked off by what's happening, and they're being the loudest right now. Not only are reddit's staff not worried about losing their business, they are probably in favour of it by this point as their anti-reddit posts are spamming the front page. They're like the drunk guys at the bar, or the card-counters at the casino - the staff aren't worried about losing their business, they just want them out.
While I understand your viewpoint, I think you may be missing the larger picture.
The minority that is spamming the frontpage of Reddit is the content-creating minority. Most of Reddit is simply lurkers or users who do little more than consume content. This part of the community really doesn't care about the drama and just wants to enjoy the content on their favorite website. There is nothing wrong with that and every social website needs lurkers. In this sense, you and Ellen Pao are correct in stating that the majority of Reddit users are not in line with the vocal minority voicing anger and outrage over Reddit's management. However, the people that are in that vocal minority are upset because the issues that caused the protests are directly linked to moderation and content creation and thus, those that are upset are the mods and the content creators. Once the good mods and content creators leave Reddit, there will be little left for the lurking majority to look at aside from overused memes and reposts. This has already happened to some degree during other large debacles, which is why the content on Reddit can be a bit vapid at times-
In short, this is the proverbial "last straw." There will be an exodus of decent proportions for the next month or so while the content creators and mods find alternative sites to join and then a slow, trickling, loss of traffic will eventually kill Reddit entirely. The systems they designed to monetize Reddit have never worked and will only be less successful with a declining user-base. Reddit is dying, for sure. The only thing I can see actually changing this is Ellen Pao being fired.
My source for this is my own analysis and experience with Reddit. I am a mod of a smaller sub (~10k subscribers) and have seen first hand many of the gripes that fueled this debacle. I left and created accounts here and at Voat to get onboard while begins its decline.
I agree that the loud small minority gets attention and seems like the virtual majority, even when it's not entirely statistically accurate. I do believe Reddit WILL have concern coming, but at this time's being, I agree, they know they are the top dog and will be for quite some time, especially considering content available and since everyone is on it like Facebook in a sense. They don't seem to be censoring posts about this site, Voat, and Eerrii, though. Do I believe if you express anger, that the admins will like you more? No, depending of course on HOW you come across about it, destructively or constructively, it might earn you a foe at the upper-end. But I don't see, even despite all of this, how the Reddit admins are "in favor" of it, in any remotely possible shape or form.
They're the content creators. That's how it works. 10% of users post the interesting stuff, and most the rest lurk or comment. Once the content goes, no reason to lurk on reddit.
I'm pretty sure reddit will be ok. Even if it changes into something else.
I am still going there for some niche subreddits (r/blender) because there are so many users compared to here (where I have now started /t/blender). If you are in those smaller niche subreddits you don't get any of the shit compared to say r/all. I do hope the smaller tribes here can grow though so i can totally cut off from reddit.
Yea, this is what digg didn't have - established micro-communities. I can't imagine /r/blender, /r/learnprogramming or other such subs to ever feel the need to move unless something much worse happens. Or, of course, an alternative providing such a significantly better experience than the existing option, but as the main influence on that factor is the level of activity in a community, it's hard to imagine how that would happen.
You say that, but I'm not seeing any proof of it. People are checking out Reddit alternatives in larger droves lately, sure, but at the same time I haven't seen Reddit so active in a while and the vast majority of the subs that went dark weren't even dark for 24 hours. There's also the problem that by far the most recommended alternative on Reddit has been Voat, and since it's down, people just end up staying at Reddit even more.
To add to that, the digg exodus didn't happen overnight. The digg staff were doing almost the exact same things that Reddit is doing now but in neither case did people just suddenly stop using the website. It's a slow trickle, not a flash flood because millions of different people with varying degrees of interest in the drama are using the website. It was the same case for Digg.
That said, I still have some Reddit tabs open but there could be a point in the future where I won't even think of Reddit and will either go directly to Voat or Snapzu.
Honestly, it depends on what subreddits you belongs to and how long it takes the rest of the community. I know that until /r/taiwan starts moving to /t/taiwan on Snapzu or /v/taiwan on Voat, I'm going to be keeping at least one Reddit tab open. There are a few others I am subbed to that have not made a real transition elsewhere, yet.
Reddit will be fine. There is a small minority who are actually ticked off by what's happening, and they're being the loudest right now. Not only are reddit's staff not worried about losing their business, they are probably in favour of it by this point as their anti-reddit posts are spamming the front page. They're like the drunk guys at the bar, or the card-counters at the casino - the staff aren't worried about losing their business, they just want them out.
While I understand your viewpoint, I think you may be missing the larger picture.
The minority that is spamming the frontpage of Reddit is the content-creating minority. Most of Reddit is simply lurkers or users who do little more than consume content. This part of the community really doesn't care about the drama and just wants to enjoy the content on their favorite website. There is nothing wrong with that and every social website needs lurkers. In this sense, you and Ellen Pao are correct in stating that the majority of Reddit users are not in line with the vocal minority voicing anger and outrage over Reddit's management. However, the people that are in that vocal minority are upset because the issues that caused the protests are directly linked to moderation and content creation and thus, those that are upset are the mods and the content creators. Once the good mods and content creators leave Reddit, there will be little left for the lurking majority to look at aside from overused memes and reposts. This has already happened to some degree during other large debacles, which is why the content on Reddit can be a bit vapid at times-
In short, this is the proverbial "last straw." There will be an exodus of decent proportions for the next month or so while the content creators and mods find alternative sites to join and then a slow, trickling, loss of traffic will eventually kill Reddit entirely. The systems they designed to monetize Reddit have never worked and will only be less successful with a declining user-base. Reddit is dying, for sure. The only thing I can see actually changing this is Ellen Pao being fired.
My source for this is my own analysis and experience with Reddit. I am a mod of a smaller sub (~10k subscribers) and have seen first hand many of the gripes that fueled this debacle. I left and created accounts here and at Voat to get onboard while begins its decline.
I agree that the loud small minority gets attention and seems like the virtual majority, even when it's not entirely statistically accurate. I do believe Reddit WILL have concern coming, but at this time's being, I agree, they know they are the top dog and will be for quite some time, especially considering content available and since everyone is on it like Facebook in a sense. They don't seem to be censoring posts about this site, Voat, and Eerrii, though. Do I believe if you express anger, that the admins will like you more? No, depending of course on HOW you come across about it, destructively or constructively, it might earn you a foe at the upper-end. But I don't see, even despite all of this, how the Reddit admins are "in favor" of it, in any remotely possible shape or form.
They're the content creators. That's how it works. 10% of users post the interesting stuff, and most the rest lurk or comment. Once the content goes, no reason to lurk on reddit.
I'm pretty sure reddit will be ok. Even if it changes into something else.
I am still going there for some niche subreddits (r/blender) because there are so many users compared to here (where I have now started /t/blender). If you are in those smaller niche subreddits you don't get any of the shit compared to say r/all. I do hope the smaller tribes here can grow though so i can totally cut off from reddit.
Yea, this is what digg didn't have - established micro-communities. I can't imagine /r/blender, /r/learnprogramming or other such subs to ever feel the need to move unless something much worse happens. Or, of course, an alternative providing such a significantly better experience than the existing option, but as the main influence on that factor is the level of activity in a community, it's hard to imagine how that would happen.