'Superforecasters' Are Making Eerily Accurate Predictions About COVID-19

When Dr. Anthony Fauci said in late May that there’s a “good chance” a COVID-19 vaccine will be ready by the end of this year, Steve Roth badly wanted to believe him. Roth, a 74-year-old New Yorker who endured fever, pneumonia and anxiety while fighting the virus, wants life to go back to normal as much as anyone. And he respects Fauci, the longtime head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), ”an awful lot,” he says. But he just doesn’t think Fauci’s timeline is realistic. Instead, he’s putting his proverbial money on mid 2021.

https://time.com